LATROBE Valley’s two Coalition Federal Members of Parliament are likely to be re-elected with swings towards them despite a near record number of candidates nominating to contest the local seats of McMillan and Gippsland, according to a leading national political scientist.
On Friday the Australian Electoral Commission confirmed 11 candidates would take on Nationals Member for Gippsland Darren Chester at the polls on 7 September while 13 had formalised their intention to contest McMillan, held by Liberal MP Russell Broadbent.
McMillan’s number of candidates fell just three short of the 16 nominated for the seat of Melbourne, the highest number nationally.
The prospect of a high number of informal votes in both electorates was raised by Monash University senior political and social inquiry lecturer Nick Economou, who told The Express AEC existing data showed “with certainty” the more candidates on a ballot paper, the more likely this was.
That view was supported by Mr Broadbent who said the size of the field “obviously complicates the allocation of preferences on how to vote cards” which would make it “more difficult” for him to hold McMillan.
Mr Broadbent is listed at number nine on the ballot paper, one above Labor Party candidate Anthony Naus.
He urged voters to “take care with the ballot paper and ensure they fill out all the numbers”, or their vote would be deemed invalid.
The MP holds his seat with what is widely considered a relatively safe margin of 4.2 per cent – though much slimmer than Mr Chester’s 11 per cent – but on Friday he said he was concerned a high informal vote could erode that.
Mr Economou said it was inevitable people confused by a crowded ballot paper would fail to number every box for the House of Representatives, rendering their vote useless.
He said he was “amazed” at the high number of local candidates (only two of whom were women) but was adamant in his view that those “seizing their chance to make an impact” in a climate where there was “disillusionment with major parties”, were unlikely to succeed.
Of the extensive field he said “you get this when there are government-changing elections happening and there is a group of people – from the far left and far right – greatly angered by those in government about what has or hasn’t been done”.
The political commentator said most of those vying for their share of the vote had a “disdain for the major political parties” and were inspired by the impact current independent MPs had enjoyed in a hung parliament.
“But there’s bad news for them… a hung parliament is just so rare and voters are tired of that so they will ensure it doesn’t happen again,” he said.
Mr Encomou forecast “disappointment” for 22 candidates across Gippsland and McMillan, saying “the Coalition will win and win comfortably” securing “very big swings”.
Where parts of the Valley were once Labor strongholds, that time had passed and The Nationals were now regarded as “the true party of the less well-off”, reflected by their local electoral success, he said.
“In this part of Victoria the blue-collar (voters) have left the ALP… and nothing Labor has done in recent times will bring them back,” he said.
Mr Economou said he did not expect any minor parties “to make gains” in Gippsland or McMillan, saying evidence showed “there is still a very high rate of party identification” and people predominantly voted for “the long-standing, enduring mainstream parties”.
