By LIAM DURKIN
LATE political journalist, Tim Colebatch of The Age perhaps summed up the feelings of most Australians when he said: “I don’t care who runs the country, but I care passionately about how it’s run”.
Such sentiments will surely ring true when Australians go to the polls for the federal election this Saturday (May 3).
As it stands, Labor and Anthony Albanese are in the box seat of securing a second term, although possibly without a majority government.
The Prime Minister has out-performed Peter Dutton in what has admittedly been a pretty boring campaign, with most opinion polls suggesting the Opposition leader hasn’t really given the public much reason to feel inspired about him providing a better alternative.
There was an undeniable feeling Australians had an appetite for change around three weeks ago, although that seems to have subsided considerably.
It would be dangerous however to discount the Coalition completely, and if recent political history is any indication, nothing is absolutely certain until election night.
Labor only has to go back to 2019 to understand this, when their victory appeared a mere formality, only for Scott Morrison to pull off a miraculous upset.
The Coalition has experienced similar fates, notably in the 1999 Victorian state election when Jeff Kennett was rolled as Premier on the same day Carlton beat premiership favourites Essendon in the preliminary final, making for two shock results within a few hours. ABC election annalist, Antony Green said of ’99: “it looked so unusual I thought something was wrong with the computer,” as results started coming in.
Dutton’s nuclear spruik has arguably struck the wrong nerve nationally, while his work from home gaffe will most likely be replayed if the Coalition loses.
By contrast, Mr Albanese has stuck to the true and tested playbook surrounding more affordable education and healthcare.
With the Australian vernacular in mind, given the Liberals held government for the best part of a decade previously, voters may also feel the Coalition has had ‘their go’, and it is time for the other team to do likewise.
Closer to home, a much more competitive election is playing out, at least in one electorate.
GIPPSLAND is precluded from the competitive ranks, as it is one of the safest Nationals seats in the whole country.
The Nationals have held the seat since 1922, and current Federal Member, Darren Chester has held it since 2008.
Mr Chester polled more than 70 per cent on a two-party preferred basis at the 2022 election, increasing his margin by nearly four per cent.
Labor candidate Sonny Stephens knows the odds are stacked against her, but is hopeful of at least putting in motion a campaign that will create change down the track.
One Nation candidate, Greg Hansford attracted nearly 10 per cent of the vote last time around, and will be cautiously optimistic of generating an even greater swing again.
Knowing Mr Hansford, this won’t be the last time we see him in an election – be it state, federal, or even on a local board.
MONASH is where the greatest interest lies.
Much as there is no place for fence sitting in predictions, this one is looking like it will be too close to call.
There is a good chance there won’t even be a result on election night.
Challengers came after long-standing Liberal incumbent, Russell Broadbent lost his majority in 2022, and only narrowly won on two-party preferred, edging out Labor’s Jessica O’Donnell by just 5600 votes all up, equating to less than four per cent.
The result was largely attributed to Mr Broadbent’s anti-vax stance at the height of COVID, where he also promoted the use of injecting ivermectim, a drug popular with COVID conspiracy theorists.
Mr Broadbent also remained in the Liberal minority for his views on same-sex marriage, being the only one in his party to vote against same-sex marriage when legislated in Parliament.
Mr Broadbent subsequently lost preselection to Mary Aldred in 2023.
The two are now going against each other, with the former running as an independent.
Ms Aldred is seen as a very strong candidate given her history as chief executive with Committee for Gippsland.
Also helping her cause is the fact she has had an 18 month run up to the federal election following her preselection.
Concern among voters surrounds Mr Broadbent’s age (he is turning 75 later this year), although given he has held the seat for more than 20 years, he will poll well again if status quo thinking comes into play for voters.
Truthfully, it is likely many rank and file voters still think Mr Broadbent is a Liberal member.
Where Monash will likely be won however is preferences, which is where Mr Broadbent could hold the trump card.
Speaking of Trump, Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots are in the Monash race (represented by Alex Wehbe), but aren’t expected to cause much more than nuisance value, along with Geoff Dethlefs (Family First), David O’Reilly (Legalise Cannabis), and Kuljeet Kaur Robinson (One Nation).
Mr Broadbent has preferenced those parties (excluding Legalise Cannabis) above the Liberals, who are fifth on his how-to-vote card.
Personally, I don’t think Mr Broadbent will win, but his preferences will decide who does.
The Liberals and their old colleague agree on at least one thing, and that is placing Terence Steele (Greens) and Deb Leonard (Independent) last and second last.
Ms Leonard has spared no expense putting together a very public campaign, fuelled by advertising on just about every platform imaginable.
Drive anywhere across the electorate, from Phillip Island to Moe, and you can be sure to see Deb Leonard’s face somewhere.
Ms Leonard has been transparent about her political advertising, listing all donors on her website, however the sheer amount of money pouring in, particularly from Climate200, has many questioning just how ‘Independent’ she is.
Mr Steele has also placed Ms Leonard second on his preferences.
Mr Steele will likely be aiming to win between five and 10 per cent of the vote, as will his Greens counterpart Rochelle Hine contesting Gippsland.
Ms Leonard has received well over half-a-million dollars in donations. By contrast, a Latrobe Valley local running as an Independent at the last state election, paid $30,000 out of her own pocket just to fund her campaign.
Some will argue The Nationals went down a similar path to Ms Leonard at the 2022 state election, which saw them win the seat of Morwell following a huge advertising blitz.
Using a local football analogy, supporters don’t mind paying for players so long as they deliver premierships.
If Ms Leonard ends up winning, her team will see it as money well spent.
Borrowing from local footy again – there is also no such thing as a salary cap.
Labor candidate Tully Fletcher should certainly not be discounted either. He stands a very realistic chance, especially given Moe is now in the Monash electorate and is traditional Labor heartland.
Those who know politics however know there is always a dark side as well.
Taking in the Darth Sidious character from the Star Wars universe may be especially relevant for Dutton and Albanese.
In The Phantom Menace film (Episode 1), the dark lord is asked if landing troops is lawful, to which Sidious sinisterly replies: “I will make it legal”.
With nuclear still legislated against in Australia, voters may have drawn similar comparisons to how Dutton proposes to build reactors.
Equally, while Labor has publicly declared it won’t be doing deals with The Greens, there remains a strong chance it will need to side with certain Teals to form a majority. Queue another Sidious line from the same film: “This will work to our advantage”.
While a litany of candidates are presented, it is important to note that (generally speaking), most, if not all parties, at their core, want what’s best for the country. It is usually just the method of delivery that differs from party to party.
At the core are people trying to do the right thing and wanting what’s best for the country.
Not to get too nationalistic, but if we stepped back from the perpetual outrage that seems to dominate society, we would have to agree we do live in a great part of the world. We have never had a civil war, our island home means we are safe from invasion, and our laws give people the right to demonstrate peacefully.
If you doubt me, I recommend attending the Boxing Day Test.
Even if you have zero interest in cricket, I wager you will feel proud when I Still Call Australia Home is sung by the Qantas Choir before play.
Having attended pre-polls across Gippsland last week, the sheer turnout showed it is clear how much people value their vote, and even clearer most voters have already made up their mind.
With all this said, it is only the voters themselves now – there is very little the candidates can do.
Whatever happens, hopefully everyone will be able to reset and recuperate.
Elections are incredibly taxing – even I had a dream last week my office was invaded by a particular party, leading to a full scale riot.
Prediction: Labor majority.
